Primeira Liga, Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Kick-off Sun 11 Oct, 19:30 UTC.
Arouca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga). Form: Arouca DLDWL, Estrela LDWDW. The model leans Arouca at 46-26-28 with Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. Confidence 3/5. This is a probability, not a guarantee. Across 677 archived Primeira Liga matches the average is 2.6 goals a game, 51.8% finish with three or more, and the home side wins 41.7% of the time.
Pick: Home win at 2.05, confidence 3/5.
Expected goals 1.83 - 1.24 from the fitted Primeira Liga model. Lean home win at 46% — too close to grade as a 1X2 tip. Goals lean Over 2.5, both teams to score.
Latest published prices from DraftKings, with the bookmaker margin removed so the percentages are a fair implied probability.
Indicative prices for comparison, not an offer to bet. ScooreCast is not affiliated with any bookmaker and takes no wagers.
Full Arouca vs Estrela head-to-head record
Arouca fixtures and predictions — form DLDWL
Estrela fixtures and predictions — form LDWDW
How this prediction was made · Public accuracy record
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