Liga MX, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. 5 - 2 full time.
Toluca 5-2 Atlas in the Liga MX: Toluca won. 7 goals, so Over 2.5. Both teams scored. ScooreCast published Home win at 1.39 before kick-off; that tip won. Across 765 archived Liga MX matches the average is 2.8 goals a game, 54.9% finish with three or more, and the home side wins 47.2% of the time. The model gives Toluca a 72% chance. Home sides in Liga MX win 47.2% of archived matches.
Pick: Home win at 1.39, confidence 5/5.
Expected goals 2.30 - 0.75 from the fitted Liga MX model. Board pick home win at 72%. Goals lean Over 2.5.
Closing prices, as published before kick-off from DraftKings, with the bookmaker margin removed so the percentages are a fair implied probability.
Indicative prices for comparison, not an offer to bet. ScooreCast is not affiliated with any bookmaker and takes no wagers.
Full Toluca vs Atlas head-to-head record
Toluca fixtures and predictions — form DLWWW
Atlas fixtures and predictions — form WDLDL
How this prediction was made · Public accuracy record
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